Sweet fancy Moses!

The Phillies pulled off a pretty nice victory last night against the Braves to finish the homestand with a 4-2 record. I suppose that should be satisfactory to more than a few folks who like to parse every single word from every single member of the club…

Yeah, you know who I’m talking about.

Anyway, in going 4-2 the gritty Phillies have a slight advantage over the classy Braves for second place in the NL East. Better yet, at 62-55 the Phillies are three games behind the Mets in the East and one behind the Padres for the wild card. At their current pace the Phillies are heading for 86 wins, which they would do by going 24-21the rest of the way. With two consecutive series against a pair of last-place teams, the Phillies should be looking at another 4-2 week.

But let’s get to the bottom line: according to software specialist Ken Roberts’ calculations, the Phillies have a 34.9 percent chance at making the playoffs this season. However, if they continue playing at their current pace, the Phillies have a better than 50-50 chance to sneak into the playoffs. According to the math, 90 wins gets the Phillies in.

That’s 28-17 the rest of the way with games against the Dodgers, Padres and Mets looming.

This could get interesting.

Needless to say, I’m often asked if I think the Phillies can buck tradition and actually make it to the playoffs for a change. It’s a good question, so I’m going to go out on a limb and offer a prediction right here…

Ready? Here it is:

I don’t know. Logically the answer is no because the Phillies just don’t have the pitching. However, even though Adam Eaton has the worst ERA amongst the starters in all of baseball and has an ERA just shy of 10 in his last 10 starts, the Phillies are somehow 4-6 in those games. It’s hard to imagine, but things could be much, much worse.

Instead, the debate is whether the Phillies should replace Eaton in the rotation with J.D. Durbin.

Really? Who saw the coming?

So can the Phillies make the playoffs?

Sure... why not.

***
Want to know how little people cared about the Barry Bonds home run chase? According to Neil Best’s blog, the numbers indicate that only 1.1 percent of the homes that have ESPN2 tuned into the game in which Bonds hit No. 756. Conversely, 22.3 percent of all U.S. households tuned into NBC to watch when Hank Aaron hit No. 715 in 1974

According to Best, 995,000 households tuned in to see Bonds last week, while about 14.9 million watched Aaron pass Babe Ruth in ‘74. That rating would translate to about 25 million homes today, he writes.

Of course there was no proliferation of cable TV or ESPN in 1974. Plus, Bonds played a game that started too late for most east coast households to watch. Nevertheless, 1.1 percent underlies the shift in the media. According to the stats, local TV news saw a ratings drop of approximately 30 percent across the board in the last year, while newspapers have more readers now than in recent years despite a drop in hard copy sales.

The reason?

The Internets!

Or maybe it’s Joe Morgan and Jon Miller of the ESPN announcing crew… apparently they are not too popular.

***
Everyone seemed to enjoy Antonio Alfonseca’s little leg kick after his strikeout to end the seventh inning last night… Sweet fancy Moses!

Everybody's working for the weekend

Last night was an easy for those looking for the story at the ballpark. Despite the Phillies’ comeback to bring them within two runs in the 7-5 defeat to the Atlanta Braves, Adam Eaton and his latest poor outing was all the talk after the game.

And it made all the papers.

The reason why, frankly, is the numbers which are quite telling. Eaton’s his league-worst ERA jumped from 6.09 to 6.36; he has allowed 17 hits and 12 runs in his last 7 1/3 innings. Worse, he has given up 46 earned runs and 76 hits in his last 10 starts, covering just 52 innings. That’s a 7.96 ERA in a little more than five innings per outing for a team in the middle of a pennant race.

“If I pitch the way I’m capable of we would be in first place,” Eaton said in delivering the money quote.

That, of course, is the big issue. If Eaton could have given the Phillies anything over the past 10 starts the Phillies and Mets could be neck and neck in the East. Instead it could shape up to be another one of those woulda, coulda, shoulda seasons for the Phillies.

Afterwards, manager Charlie Manuel remained non-committal in offering classic non-denial denials regarding Eaton’s future in the Phillies’ rotation. However, while waiting in the clubhouse for Eaton to finish his post-game meal and chat with the scribes, general manager Pat Gillick scurried into the manager’s office and closed the door. It remained that way for at least 20 minutes.

Could they have been talking about Eaton?

***
Saturday was a fairly eventful day for those who follow both Floyd Landis and Ted Leo. Unfortunately/fortunately, those folks were able to get updates on one of those subjects, that being another legendary Landis ride in a pretty tough bike race.

On very little training and no racing since last summer, Landis rode for second place in the very challenging Leadville 100 mountain bike race in Leadville, Colo. It’s a challenging race not only because of the rugged terrain and monster climbs, but also because the race starts at approximately 10,000-feet of altitude. In fact, I recall asking Floyd about doing the race eerier this summer with a raised-eyebrows, “Dude, are you really going to do that race on no training” tone.

Here’s what he said in June when I asked him if he was going to do Leadville:

"Yeah, it seemed like a good idea back when I was training more… that’s going to be painful. I’ve been riding a little more since the hearing ending – I’ve been trying to get some more miles in. If I can just get a few decent weeks of training in I’ll be alright. I don’t particularly like to race at altitude and this one is at 10,000-feet, but I’ll be fine.

"I don’t like altitude at all. I hate it. I did that thing a few weeks ago in Vail (Colorado) at the Teva Mountain Games for a fund raiser and that was a problem. The problem there was that I sat in that hearing for 10 days and I didn’t do [anything]. I didn’t even move. It wasn’t like I even exercised, I just sat there. Then I got on my bike a week later and tried to race and it was painful. Hopefully I can get some time up at altitude somewhere."

But Floyd, as described by his wife Amber in a famous interview, is “one tough bitch.”

Around the 25-mile mark of the 100-mile race, Floyd took a nasty spill where he bloodied his left his hip, knee and elbow, shredded his shorts and bled all gnarly-like on the rest of the ride. Nevertheless, it seems that a crash on that hip would be a good way to test it out to see how it's holding up after last autumn's surgery... right?

Despite that, Floyd battled mountain-bike Hall of Famer, Dave Wiens to the course record. According to reports – as always TBV out-performed itself – Floyd was fighting Wiens for the victory until he got a flat tire.

Still, he nearly caught Wiens, finishing 103 seconds behind.

According to The Associated Press: “I chased too hard after the flat,” Landis said, bandages on three fingertips and blood-soaked gauze from just above the knee to his ankle. “He probably was going to win anyway, even without the flat. He's in great shape.”

Wiens said, according to Bicycling Magazine: “That was the hardest and the best mountain bike race of my life,” said Wiens at the finish. “Mentally, physically, it was brutal. And having Floyd Landis behind you sucks.”

He is, after all, a tough bitch.

Meanwhile, I found nothing in The Baltimore Sun, The Washington Post or from the DC-area scenesters regarding Ted Leo and The Pharmacists’ show in Towson, Md. last night.

What the hell?

Anyway, Ted and the gang play a free show in Brooklyn this afternoon before taking a much-needed and well-deserved month off.

Good show

If there is one thing the Phillies do well (and often) is pre-game ceremonies and alumni events. When it comes to remembering their past, the Phillies are very good. The interesting thing is that the Phillies don’t have too many good times to remember… one World Series title in 124 seasons? What would anyone want to remember about that?

But the Phillies forge on and put together very tasteful and not-too sappy programs despite, as one player asked me when I told him there was a ceremony before a game, “What, is this the 12th anniversary of the 10th anniversary?”

We all had a good laugh at that one.

Nevertheless, the Phillies put together a nice program for the late, great John Vukovich last night in which the true spirit of the “Phillies Way” was inducted into the team’s Wall of Fame. All of the team’s greats were there – Carlton, Schmidt, Boone, Allen and on down the line – and judging from the looks on the faces and the ardor of emotion it was easy to tell that the night meant a lot to them.

Quite simply, John Vukovich was the Phillies and if anyone deserves a ceremony or a remembrance before a ballgame, it’s Vuk.

But then again, every time there is a baseball game played by the Phillies it is a wonderful reminder of the man’s legacy. Nine innings on the diamond in South Philadelphia is a good ceremony, too.

***
Meanwhile, I have a dilemma. Adam Eaton and the Phillies face the Braves tonight in the middle game of yet another important series. It’s a game in which Eaton really needs to pitch well in not just for the Phillies, but for his survival in the team’s rotation. With a 6.09 ERA, Eaton has the worst ERA in the league.

But in Towson, Md. (a much more pleasant drive from my home than on the Schuylkill to the ballpark), Ted Leo along with his Pharmacists, will be playing.

What to do?

Well, what to do and wanting to do are always competing.

***
I “discovered” Neil Best’s Media Watchdog blog recently (kind of the way Columbus “discovered” America) and it’s an entertaining read.

***
Tonight’s Powerball drawing is up to $161 million.

Yep, this could be my last day of work.

Where to turn?

If one really wanted to know what Charlie Manuel thinks about the arsenal of arms he has in his bullpen, look no further than the seventh inning of last night’s game in Phoenix during the 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. Rather than pinch hit with Ryan Howard, Wes Helms or Jayson Werth for starting pitcher Adam Eaton with runners on first and third with two outs, Manuel decided to roll the dice on Eaton.

It didn’t work.

Eaton grounded out to end the inning before going out to the mound for the bottom of the seventh where he gave up a two-out titanic homer to pinch hitter Tony Clark.

That’s your ballgame right there.

After the game Manuel said he went with Eaton to hit in that spot because if he would have sent Howard up the D’backs would have intentionally walked him to load the bases… as if that’s a bad thing. Frankly, it’s a 50-50 shot if the D’backs would have walked Howard simply because it doesn’t appear as if he can put any weight on his back leg when he swings. Right now, Howard is an easy out. Besides, if Howard gets walked, Aaron Rowand comes up and he’s hitting .407 with the bases loaded.

I doubt Charlie knew that – or cared. Simply, Manuel would rather have Eaton out there in the seventh than turn to his Posh Spice-thin bullpen. With the way Manuel is using his ‘pen, it’s clear he has some faith in Geoff Geary and no one else before the game is turned over to Brett Myers.

Ideally, Manuel needs a couple of complete games and a few days of rain.

Hamels and Moyer and pray for rain…

There has to be something snappier we can come up with – what type of dramatic weather event rhymes with Moyer?

***
Speaking of Jamie Moyer, the ol’ lefty matches up against 43-year old Randy Johnson for today’s series finale. I’ll spare you all of the old pitcher comparisons, except for this one – Moyer and Johnson have faced Bob Dernier in a combined 21 plate appearances. “White Lightning” has five hits, a stolen base and two strikeouts against today’s starters.

***
Unfortunately for my six readers, I’m going to miss this weekend’s series against the Cubs because my wife, son and I are going to Rehoboth Beach for an extended weekend. With a new addition coming in August, the annual summertime trip to Estes Park, Colo. is out for 2007, so our old vacation haunt gets the another off-season call.

Nevertheless, we’ll continue to post here when the opportunity arises, especially after tomorrow night’s walk through the F&M campus to Clipper Stadium to see the local sandlot team, the Lancaster Barnstormers play the Long Island Ducks.

This is Atlantic League Baseball, which, stunningly, is much worse than I had anticipated. In fact, watching more than two innings of the Barnstormers "play" is so frustratingly agonizing that watching someone have a suit tailored is much more interesting. Regardless, the quality of the baseball is clearly not the point at a Lancaster Barnstormers game – in a city with a dearth of excitement, the night out while attempting to corral a three-year old is the main pursuit.

Baseball-wise, Lancaster’s second baseman is Bo Hart, who may be remembered as Fernando Vina’s replacement for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2003. Long Island has former All-Star Danny Graves in the bullpen; former Cardinals and Yankees pitcher Donovan Osborne, as well as outfielder Carl Everett, former Mets standout Edgardo Alfonzo, and an infielder in his 19th season of pro ball named Pete Rose Jr.

Yeah, how about that?

Anyway, the game starts at 7 p.m. and I should be back home no later than 8:30 or until Jurassic Carl knocks one onto Harrisburg Pike... whichever comes first.

Deep thoughts...

Here’s an idea that will probably make a few people hold their heads as if they have a really bad migraine – you know, the kind where it pounds at the temples and feels as if someone or thing is shooting a low frequency wave through the skull that emits a shrill buzz in the inner ear – and question my sanity for such “unconventional” thinking.

I’m throwing it out there any way…

Maybe the Phillies should keep all of their starting pitchers. Yeah, that’s right, all Six. Before anyone goes crazy, here’s what I’d do – Cole Hamels, Freddy Garcia and Brett Myers would pitch every five days just like they customarily would in the square-boxed thinking that guides such things. Meanwhile, I’d try to figure out how to work it so that Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton and Jon Lieber started at least one game a week and if there were too long of a lull between outings, I’m sure there would be some relief work available, too.

What?

Exactly. My guess is that Moyer, Eaton and Lieber would be perfect compliments to the top three starters and would be much more effective if they were used like a dash of seasoning instead of as a main course. Better yet, if the trio made one start per week over a 26-week season then they would be that much fresher when the stretch run approached. Besides, it seems to me that good baseball teams treat the season like a chess match or a golf game where the importance of a move or shot is to put one in position to have an even better move or shot the next time.

Hey, I’m not kidding myself by believing that any manager or team would go for something like this, but what the hell? It certainly isn't convention thinking, but ideas have to come from somewhere. Right?

***
Meanwhile, it looks as if Tom Gordon’s achy shoulder is aching again.

Last season, as everyone remembers, Gordon broke down a bit and went on the disabled list in August despite a first half in which he earned a trip to the All-Star Game. At 39, the Phillies are concerned about over working their starter as evidenced by the fact that he’s appeared in just two Grapefruit League games and by the fact that they sent him back to Philadelphia for a checkup with team doctor Michael Ciccotti.

Before anyone jumps to any conclusions (how could they?), the team says the trip is simply for a routine checkup and it’s something that occurred last year at this time, too. But before anyone can say Mike Jackson, perhaps the Phillies ought to get another arm for the ‘pen to go along with Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca.

Until that happens, be sure that Charlie Manuel sticks to his guns and allows Gordon just one inning per outing no back-to-back work early in the season.

Phillies Round Out Rotation with Eaton

Pat Gillick has not been very shy about expressing his disdain for the current crop of free agents on the market. Actually, Gillick was a bit underwhelmed by his choices last year, too, when he said his priority was to find a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies.

“Sometimes we can get everything we want, but sometimes nothing materializes,” the Phils’ GM said.

Nonetheless, another year has passed and Gillick and the Phillies still have not made any changes at the top of the rotation. Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer hold down the same spots as they did at the end of the 2006 season. The only difference is that Adam Eaton, the club’s first-round draft pick in 1996, will finally start a season in the Phillies’ rotation.

Of course there was a decade of climbing through the minors, a trade to San Diego and then another to Texas before finally getting his chance to pitch for the Phillies, yet Eaton is finally here after the official announcement of his new deal with the team that drafted him.

Eaton, still just 29 years old, is guaranteed $24.5 million over the next three seasons, the team announced on Thursday afternoon. The oft-injured right-hander joins the Phillies after starting just 13 games for the Rangers in 2006 after undergoing surgery on the middle finger of his pitching hand last April. In that Baker’s dozen of starts, Eaton went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, but has gone 18-9 over the past two years and 37 starts.

Eaton also had elbow surgery in July of 2001 that kept him off the field until September of 2002. Meanwhile, Eaton missed a few starts in 2005 with a strained middle finger on is right hand before having surgery on it in April of 2006. In all, Eaton has been on the disabled list six times during his career.

Regardless, the Phillies just committed three seasons and $24.5 million to a pitcher who has never had an ERA lower than 4.08 or thrown 200 innings in any of his seven Major League seasons. In fact, Eaton has made more than 30 starts just twice.

“We’re very happy to have Adam in the fold,” Gillick said in a statement. “He stabilizes our rotation and will complement the rest of our staff nicely.”

So unless there is an unforeseen trade or signing, the Phillies rotation for 2007 is set. That, however, doesn’t mean Gillick doesn’t have some work to do before the team heads to Clearwater in mid February. Or even the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla. next week.

“We’ll have to wait and see. We have a few lines out there trying to acquire what we need,” Gillick offered during a conference call on Thursday evening. We want to go out fishing and we have a few proposals out there. We’re looking for some bullpen help and a hitter.”

The Phillies’ needs certainly do not need to be decoded. With five starters with Major League experience, four outfielders and five infielders, the Phillies are set in those aspects. The bullpen, on the other hand, is incomplete and Gillick says he wouldn’t mind bolstering the team’s catching (Mike Piazza?) in addition to acquiring that much-talked about hitter (Mike Piazza?).

Let's make a deal?
But outside of landing Eaton and part-time third baseman Wes Helms, Gillick has whiffed as if he were Pat Burrell with two on and two outs. The team was interested in 40-40 man Alfonso Soriano until the Cubs came in and offered him an eight-year deal that made him the second-richest Chicagoan behind Oprah.

With Soriano gone, the team was rumored to be one of a handful of teams in the mix for Carlos Lee until he decided to go to Houston for six years and $100 million. After that news dropped, Gillick claimed the Phils weren’t so involved in bidding for Lee despite the fact that the slugger was as steady performer during his career. Sure, there are/were fair concerns over Lee’s fitness and attitude, but if Gillick and the gang are looking for protection for MVP Ryan Howard as they say they are, the new Astro would have fit in nicely in Philadelphia.

But for six years and $100 million?

Secretly, or maybe not so secretly, Gillick and the Phillies brass must have breathed a sigh of relief that Lee signed such an obnoxious deal with the Astros. While publicly downplaying the market, Gillick has a few built-in excuses and the luxury of being sane (and right) for not shelling out the mega years and bucks for Soriano and Lee. After all, Burrell already has one of those crazy deals.

And as far as trading that crazy deal to another team… well, good luck.

“We don’t have a lot to trade,” Gillick said. “We have the four outfielders (Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino and Jeff Conine), and the five infielders (Howard, Helms, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Abraham Nunez). We need to add. We don’t have the surplus to trade.”

Besides, published reports indicate that Burrell will only waive his no-trade clause to go to the Yankees, Red Sox or a west-coast club.

So there’s another strike. Mix in the rescinded multi-year offer to reliever Joe Borowski over reported arm trouble revealed in a team physical and Gillick is fouling off some tough ones.

“I’m not really sure with what’s going on out there is everyone is looking for the same commodity,” Gillick said. “Everyone is looking for a starter. Unless someone can trade for a reliever for a starter or a starter for a reliever I can’t see a lot of action going on. If you have some pitching you don’t want to give it up.”

That goes for the reserves in the minor leagues, too. Gillick said the team would be reluctant to deal away a prospect like Gio Gonzalez for a short-term fix.

At the same time, Gillick says one of those proposals the team has dangled out there has not been offered to former Reds closer David Weathers.

Needless to say, there’s work to do.

“We’re optimistic, but I can’t make any assurances or commitments that [anything is] going to happen,” Gillick said.

But at least for now, Gillick and the Phillies can be satisfied that some of holiday shopping is taken care of with Eaton’s arrival. Plus, with the re-acquisition of the team’s 1999 Paul Owens Award winner, the Phillies staff might not have changed at the top but it’s better than it was when 2006 began.

“I don’t look at the other teams in the division or the league, but from where we were from the beginning of the ’06 season we have five starters who have [Major League] experience. We have starters with experience,” Gillick said. “We didn’t have that last year.

“From the quality standpoint we have a better rotation that we had at the beginning of last year. What we have to do is work on the bullpen.”

Pitchers and catcher report in 11 weeks.

Eaton returns as Wolf goes home

It’s hard to write about Randy Wolf and his move home to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers without doing some sad self-introspection. Baseball players, of course, come and go. There have been thousands of them to pass through Philadelphia and there will likely be thousands more. It’s the same everywhere.

A few leave a mark either on the field or off and Randy Wolf was one of those guys. Engaging, reasonably intelligent and always thoughtful are tough characteristics to find in most baseball clubhouses these days. To find a guy who encompasses all three is like finding a specific needle in a stack of needles.

Engaging, for a writer, is the important trait. It didn’t matter whether Wolf was pissed off after a poor outing or had somewhere to go after the game, he always treated a questioner with patience and respect.

Certainly it’s hard not to be excited for Wolf, who gets to pitch for his hometown team where his mom, family and friends can come see him pitch as often as possible. The fact that Wolf reportedly turned down better offers – including a multi-year deal from the Phillies – to go home speaks to how important it was to go home. Sure, he has made his money and will be paid a handsome salary with easy-to-reach incentives if he stays healthy, but another good person has taken less to go somewhere else.

“The Phillies were very competitive,” Wolf told reporters. “I felt that they were competitive with any offer out there. But it was just a matter of the Dodgers being the right opportunity. To me, it wasn't about trying to get the most money. It was important for me to have the opportunity that I didn't know would ever come up again.

“I could have gone to the highest bidder. But for me, going to the highest bidder wasn't as important as going to the place I was from. I grew up in the L.A. area and have many fond memories of going to Dodger Stadium with friends and family.”

Figuring out how to keep certain players in town is a headier project for another time.

Regardless, the part I’m struggling with is that Randy Wolf was the last player remaining on the Phillies from the first day I stepped into that damp and dark clubhouse in Veterans Stadium. I arrived on the scene about a week before Pat Burrell was finally called up from Scranton and months before Jimmy Rollins got his September call up and Terry Francona his September pink slip.

Scott Rolen, Robert Person, Bruce Chen, Brandon Duckworth, Brian Hunter, Nelson Figueroa, Omar Daal, Mike Lieberthal, Doug Glanville, Dave Coggin, Chris Brock, Eric Valent, Johnny Estrada, Todd Pratt, Amaury Telemaco, Wayne Gomes, Joe Roa, Jeremy Giambi, Eric Junge, Rheal Cormier, Bobby Abreu, Placido Polanco, Cory Lidle, Larry Bowa, Ricky Ledee, David Bell, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Houston, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Turk Wendell, Dan Plesac, Jason Michaels, Billy Wagner and Travis Lee…

All gone.

So Wolf heading for Los Angeles there are no more ballplayers who have been with the Phillies since the middle of the 2000 season.

If I didn’t know any better I’d say I’m getting old.

Eaton returns
I’m so old that I remember when Ed Wade traded away the team’s top pitching prospects, Adam Eaton and Carlton Loewer, for the surly and underachieving Andy Ashby. At the time Wade defended the deal by claiming the Phillies’ wild-card hopes for 2000 were directly pinned on Ashby coming through at the top of the rotation with Curt Schilling not due back to the rotation until May after undergoing off-season surgery. In theory Wade was correct. The Phillies needed a top-of-the-rotation starter to compliment Schilling, but that guy wasn’t Ashby.

That didn’t take long to figure out.

Ashby was traded to Atlanta by June for Bruce Chen, who lasted slightly longer than a season in Philadelphia before starting his collection of used uniforms.

Nevertheless, Eaton takes Wolf’s spot in the rotation even though the duo should have worked together for the past half decade.

Better late than never, right?

Though not officially official, Eaton is signed on for the next three seasons, which isn’t so bad. Just 29, Eaton will be heading into his prime years during his deal with the Phillies. Wolf should be coming into his prime, too, but Eaton should be slightly better… then again, pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery are typically better the second year.

We’ll definitely have the chance to see how it all unfolds.

No Lee, no way
It turns out that the Phillies only had a cursorily interest in slugger Carlos Lee before he signed a six-year deal worth $100 million with the Hoston Astros last week. According to what general manager Pat Gillick told wunderkind Phillies writer Todd Zolecki, the Phils never had a shot.

“We weren't in on him,” Gillick said in The Inquirer.

To that we say, “Why the hell not”?

Well…

“It's like musical chairs,” Gillick told Zolecki. “You don't want to be stuck without a chair... . I'm optimistic about the potential of some of the things we're talking about. I just think we've had some good dialogue back and forth, both in trades and in free agency. We've had some good talks.

“There wasn't a lot of depth in this market. You had Soriano and Carlos Lee. You have Zito and Schmidt. After you get by that group, there's not a lot there.”

On another note, the Phillies signed a third-base coach. If the newly-hired Steve Smith makes it through the first full week of December he’ll already be on the job longer than the last guy.