Sweet fancy Moses!

The Phillies pulled off a pretty nice victory last night against the Braves to finish the homestand with a 4-2 record. I suppose that should be satisfactory to more than a few folks who like to parse every single word from every single member of the club…

Yeah, you know who I’m talking about.

Anyway, in going 4-2 the gritty Phillies have a slight advantage over the classy Braves for second place in the NL East. Better yet, at 62-55 the Phillies are three games behind the Mets in the East and one behind the Padres for the wild card. At their current pace the Phillies are heading for 86 wins, which they would do by going 24-21the rest of the way. With two consecutive series against a pair of last-place teams, the Phillies should be looking at another 4-2 week.

But let’s get to the bottom line: according to software specialist Ken Roberts’ calculations, the Phillies have a 34.9 percent chance at making the playoffs this season. However, if they continue playing at their current pace, the Phillies have a better than 50-50 chance to sneak into the playoffs. According to the math, 90 wins gets the Phillies in.

That’s 28-17 the rest of the way with games against the Dodgers, Padres and Mets looming.

This could get interesting.

Needless to say, I’m often asked if I think the Phillies can buck tradition and actually make it to the playoffs for a change. It’s a good question, so I’m going to go out on a limb and offer a prediction right here…

Ready? Here it is:

I don’t know. Logically the answer is no because the Phillies just don’t have the pitching. However, even though Adam Eaton has the worst ERA amongst the starters in all of baseball and has an ERA just shy of 10 in his last 10 starts, the Phillies are somehow 4-6 in those games. It’s hard to imagine, but things could be much, much worse.

Instead, the debate is whether the Phillies should replace Eaton in the rotation with J.D. Durbin.

Really? Who saw the coming?

So can the Phillies make the playoffs?

Sure... why not.

***
Want to know how little people cared about the Barry Bonds home run chase? According to Neil Best’s blog, the numbers indicate that only 1.1 percent of the homes that have ESPN2 tuned into the game in which Bonds hit No. 756. Conversely, 22.3 percent of all U.S. households tuned into NBC to watch when Hank Aaron hit No. 715 in 1974

According to Best, 995,000 households tuned in to see Bonds last week, while about 14.9 million watched Aaron pass Babe Ruth in ‘74. That rating would translate to about 25 million homes today, he writes.

Of course there was no proliferation of cable TV or ESPN in 1974. Plus, Bonds played a game that started too late for most east coast households to watch. Nevertheless, 1.1 percent underlies the shift in the media. According to the stats, local TV news saw a ratings drop of approximately 30 percent across the board in the last year, while newspapers have more readers now than in recent years despite a drop in hard copy sales.

The reason?

The Internets!

Or maybe it’s Joe Morgan and Jon Miller of the ESPN announcing crew… apparently they are not too popular.

***
Everyone seemed to enjoy Antonio Alfonseca’s little leg kick after his strikeout to end the seventh inning last night… Sweet fancy Moses!

It's Game 4!

More observations from Thursday night's telecast of Game 4 of the World Series:

* Here’s something from Slate that says people dislike the Cardinals because they read Moneyball.

I’m not sure about the argument, though. Tony La Russa might have something to do with people’s dislike of the Cardinals, and around here Scott Rolen may have checkered some reaction to the Cards’ run to the World Series.

* Speaking of Rolen, it might not be too far-fetched to believe he could be the MVP of the World Series if the Cardinals win. After four games Rolen’s batting average is just a shade under .500 and his .813 slugging percentage for an 1.284 OPS. Players with lesser numbers have been named the series MVP.

The drawback, of course, is the RBIs. Rolen has just one in the series, and one in the entire post-season. Excluding pitchers, the fewest amount of RBIs by a World Series MVP are two by Derek Jeter in 2000, Rick Dempsey in 1983 and Pete Rose in 1975.

Perhaps Rolen needs just one more?

* Jayson Stark wonders if La Russa is toying with the Busch Stadium radar guns just to mess with Tigers’ reliever Joel Zumaya’s head.

* This is just a guess, but I would not be shocked if everyone is sick and tired of hearing that John Cougar Mellencamp song on that car commercial. In fact, I’m so annoyed by it that I don’t even know what type of car it’s for. Worse, it is now officially more annoying than Bob Seger’s “Like a Rock” car commercial song.

I don’t know what type of car that was for either, but chances are it’s not a car I’d buy.

* ESPN is taking on the ambitious task of adapting Jonathan Mahler’s wonderful book, Ladies and Gentlemen, the Bronx Is Burning. The eight-hour adaptation, starring John Turturro as Billy Martin and Oliver Platt as George Steinbrenner, is supposed to be ready for air next summer.

If ESPN re-creation is half as good as Mahler’s book that documents the summer of tumult in 1977 New York City, it will be well worth sitting still for eight hours to watch the movie.

I’m curious if ESPN will stick strictly with the Yankees aspect of the book or attempt to reach into the political and societal narratives. If so, I’m dying to know who will play Bella Abzug.

* If I were David Eckstein I would be very tired of every talking head pointing out that I’m “little” and “scrappy.” Just once I would like to hear a guy like Eckstein look at an interviewer like Chris Myers and say, “Is that all you can come up with? I’m small? Come on, dude… people out there want your best work.”

* La Russa's move to bring in closer Adam Wainwright for five outs was really smart. Perhaps a starter or two will be in the bullpen as the Cardinals attempt to close it out on Friday night.

* The Cardinals led the Royals 3-1 in the 1985 World Series and the Tigers 3-1 in the 1968 series. They lost both of those. Moreover, in the two previous meetings between the Cardinals and Tigers in the World Series, the team that won Game 4 went on the lose the series.

Hmmm...

In the 1982 World Series, the last time the Cardinals won one, St. Louis trailed Milwaukee 3-2 before winning games 6 and 7.