Just some baseball stuff

According to some reports, Cole Hamels had 160 strikeouts in his first 25 starts (in 145 1/3 innings or 9.91 per nine innings), which is the second most by a left-hander over that span behind Fernando Valenzuela. Of course this doesn’t include his 15-strikeout performance against the Reds last week, or the six strikeouts he had last night in grinding out the win over the Braves.

Speaking of which, the win over the Braves was interesting for a couple of reasons, but mostly because of the way Hamels bounced back after the first and second innings. In those opening frames Hamels gave up seven hits to the first 11 hitters and, more importantly, three runs in the first inning. From watching on my TV (a set that is both falling apart, but artfully decorated with the post-modern crayon musings by a three-year old boy) and based on conversations from folks in the know, it was clear that Hamels had become a bit unhinged after giving up a home run to Chipper Jones in the three-run first.

Hamels also was a little beside himself during last Thursday’s loss to the Washington Nationals at the Bank when he struggled through 5 1/3 innings for his first loss of the season. Yet according to reports, Hamels was put back on track thanks to a visit to the mound by pitching coach Rich Dubee, who asked the lefty if he was on anything.

Yeah?

“He asked me if I was on anything,” Hamels told the writers. “I wasn't, I just get that way sometimes with my adrenaline.”

As far as the strikeouts go, Hamels only got his first one in the fourth inning in the win over the Braves. He finished with six to give him 43 in his six starts (40 2/3 innings). Only the Padres’ Jake Peavy has more.

***
Also at the top of the strikeout-leaders list is Dodgers’ lefty Randy Wolf, who has 36 strikeouts in six starts and 35 2/3 innings. At 3-3 and riding a two-game losing streak, Wolf has worked into the sixth inning of all his starts, which puts him on pace for 210 innings this season. Wolf needs to pitch 180 innings to have a $9 million option for 2008 kick in.

Speaking of former Phillies, the Dodgers are considering using Mike Lieberthal at third base because of some injuries, poor play and few other options. Lieberthal, of course, has caught more games than any other Phillie in franchise history and hasn’t done anything on the diamond other than squat behind the plate since his junior year of high school.

Whether or not it comes to Lieberthal getting a new glove and standing upright on the field remains to be seen. At this point it seems that the ex-longest tenured Philadelphia athlete is struggling to get used to his new role as a backup catcher. Listen to Lieby tell the Los Angeles Times about the adjustment.

“I miss playing,” Lieberthal said. “That's the best part of the day.”

***
Brett Myers threw nine of his 11 pitches for strikes in his two-thirds of an inning last night.

In his eight relief outings covering 8 1/3 innings, Myers has thrown 154 pitches, compared to 283 pitches in three games and 15 1/3 innings as a starter. I don’t know what any of this means, though manager Charlie Manuel and Dubee believe that Myers is still easing into his new role.

“He's using up a lot of adrenaline right now because it's so new to him,” Dubee told Courier-Post raconteur, Mike Radano.

For some reason it still makes sense to me to have Myers go for a four, five or six-out save on occasion even though Manuel seems to be locked in to using his players in well-defined roles. Until it’s proven to me that Myers can’t be like old-school closers like Bruce Sutter and pitch more than one inning, I’m always going to think it should be an option from time to time.

***
Phil Sheridan of the Inquirer columnized about the death of Josh Hancock and Tony La Russa’s “agenda.” According to reports it appears that Hancock might have been impaired while driving at the time of his accident. Meanwhile, La Russa was arrested for DUI during spring training and still awaits misdemeanor charges.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, La Russa “has declined questions about his arrest since making a brief statement to media hours after being released.” Asked about whether his manager should be more aggressive when dealing with such issues since his DUI arrest, Cardinals’ GM Walt Jocketty told the paper, no.

“Personally, I don't think so. I see how he deals with things. I think he would tell a player, ‘Look, it could happen to anybody. It happened to me. You've got to be careful how you conduct yourself.’”

Either way, it seems to that this would be a good chance for Major League Baseball to do something bold or Tony La Russa to take a stand… or both.

Getting his work in

Whenever the subject about workouts and running came up, Randy Wolf's ears would always prick up. Why not? Like any competitive athlete, Wolf was always looking for an edge. If he could pick up a little something here or there and add it to his repertoire, it was even better.

I had the chance to talk about my running workouts with Wolf more than a few times over the years and it was easy to tell he was not only interested in long-distance running, but also had a passion for it. A nice, 10-miler was a routine run during the off-season, but mostly, though, he was interested in the volume that elite-level marathoners put in, as well as the types and workout schedules. Better yet, we both had a good chuckle when one writer was gushing over how “tough” Roger Clemens’ workout routine and couldn’t hide his smirk when I finally butt in with a, “Dude, that’s not very hard... ”

I have what I like to call bleephole tendencies. Hey, what are you going to do?

Anyway, I recall a conversation in August of last season where Wolf and I talked about interval sessions and the kind of stuff I did in preparing for a marathon. Like anything with Wolf, it was an informed and well-thought question and, frankly, the first time that a non-competitive runner asked specifically about something as intricate interval sessions.

As a marathoner, I said, I liked to do repeats of a mile to 5 kilometers with longer intervals when preparing for a race. At the time, longish tempo runs were what I was focusing on, which really isn’t a big help to a baseball player – it’s not a big deal for a pitcher to hit a 5k in 16:30 or a 10-miler in 58 flat. But for a marathoner, I explained, I emulated the surges that would occur in a race.

Wolf, though, wanted to know about quarters, which is something I really disliked doing. Oh I did them all right; it’s just that any workout on the track kind of scared the hell out of me. To me the track means speed, and speed kills hamstrings. Plus, stepping on a track wearing spikes meant business. There is no such thing as messing around on a track. It’s easy to go out and run for two hours without stopping where one can allow their thoughts and legs take them to wherever the mood takes them, but a track – that’s like stepping into a boxing ring.

Anyway, I told Wolf that I used to try to do 20 quarters in 70 to 75 seconds with a float around the track for the rest. Another one I “liked” to do was three miles of sprinting the straights and floating the curves. Rob de Castella, the badass Australian marathoner, used to do that one.

Wolf had to leave before we could get deep into the details of intervals sessions and exactly what he was looking for, but I think I figured it out after reading Jayson Stark’s great piece on ESPN.com where Wolf goes through his daily workout routine.

Even though we don’t know how fast he hits his quarters, it’s really a fascinating read and more fantastic work from the great Jayson Stark.

Here's the quote I liked:

"I want to be in baseball shape," he says. "I'm not going to run a marathon or be a decathlon athlete. I'm training to have 35 starts, hopefully more than that [if his team makes the playoffs]. That's what I'm training to do. And I think there were times during the season where I lost my stamina because I didn't listen to my body. I'd go too hard, too hard, too hard, and then I'd fade out. …

"Back when I was 22, 23, 24 years old, I was big into running and keeping in shape that way, and I wouldn't change my routine. I was still into running five, six miles. And then all of a sudden, I'm in the sixth inning and my legs were dead, and I'd have no idea why. I realize now I was just working too hard the days I was not pitching."

Truth be told, I could read about different workouts all day long. Not only is there a possibility of picking up something new, but also it’s really, really motivating.

The running though, is about all there is in common. Instead of the weights, I attempt yoga, which I sure is a treat to see. People like me make the Tin Man look limber. Wolf's workout is for athletes and it appears as if the Dodgers have found themselves a good one.

Do the right thing

Let’s start with a clerical thing – starting on Dec. 1 I am going to go into “Holiday Mode.” That means the posts here are will drop to just two or three per week as opposed to the veritable Odyssey and the Iliad that gets posted in manic spurts. Oh, I’ll be working for the first couple of weeks of the month before using up the last of my vacation days of 2006, but there will be other things happening that need my attention. I’ve been neglecting a few more “serious” writing endeavors and I want make some headway before the end of the year.

On another note, the running and training site will continue to be update with the same alacrity as always. Feel free to dive in and laugh at me.

Now, on to our regularly scheduled drivel…

According to the dispatches from the coast, Dodgers fans are excited about landing Randy Wolf and have given him special, sloppy kudos for agreeing to a deal for less years and guaranteed money to pitch in front of his friends and family in Los Angeles.

Of course Wolf will get $7.5 million for 2007 with an easy-to-reach vesting option for $9 million if he pitches 180 innings. Should Wolf remain healthy – and there is no indication to think he won’t be – the lefty believes he’s getting a two-year deal to go home.

Then again, despite the inflated free-agent market this winter, it’s not as if deals like the one Wolf got are growing on trees. At least they don’t give them to guys who write sentences.

“I'm not being paid minimum wage,” Wolf said. “It wasn't about how many years I could get, how many dollars I get.”

Better yet:

“You can't live your life for somebody else,” he said. “You have to do what's right.”

Besides, Wolf always said the biggest thing for him was to "experience baseball in October." With a new team that has done just that for the past two seasons in a row, the former Phillie just might get his chance.

Standing with the Inky & DN
Speaking of doing what’s right, let’s interject a little business with the baseball. Now I’m definitely no expert on business matters and things of that nature. If I was, well… you know.

Anyway, there is a strong chance that the writers at the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News could go out on strike at midnight on Thursday. Certainly, there are many intricate details that complicate matters, but the potential strike is bad for everybody.

It’s especially bad for a business that is making money. In fact, newspapers routinely turn in double-digit profit margins despite the changing landscape of the media. Again, I’m not expert, but it seems as if only casinos, certain elements of the entertainment industry and the Cosa Nostra consistently turn in profit margins like newspapers.

Yet across the country newsroom layoffs continue to occur at an alarming rate. Again, I’m not expert, but when did making a profit become so bad that it costs people livelihoods and careers?

Is it a simple issue of greed? Do the owners of newspapers believe the bottom line supercedes the public interest and the sanctity of our democracy? Sure, it might sound a bit dramatic, but trust me, it’s not. Without a resourceful and free press, the United States does not exist.

Don’t get me wrong, I think I believe in capitalism as it relates to a person’s liberty and labor. If someone can build a better mousetrap, have a special skill and/or work hard, they should be rewarded. But at the same time there is a way to do this with ethics and honor.

From what I can decipher from the newspapers an their double-digit profit margins is that if the world is a rat race it’s OK to be a rat.

Anyway, I’ll be rooting for a swift and painless settlement for the Inky/DN as soon as possible. There are some very hard-working, intelligent and kind people who work for our local papers of record. Let’s hope they keep on putting out their newspaper.

No way, Joe
Like Sandy Alomar a couple of years ago, a potential free agent signing for the Phillies appears to have hit a snag.

According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, the Phillies have “backed away” from a multi-year offer to relief pitcher Joe Borowski because of concerns over his right shoulder following the results of a physical.

According to Crasnick’s report, the Phillies were prepared to sign Borowski when a team doctor examined the results of the physical and advised against giving the pitcher a multi-year deal.

However, the report says that Borowski and his agents continue to field one-year offers from teams, including the Phillies.

The right-handed Borowski, 35, saved 36 games in 2006 for the Marlins and was eyed by the Phillies as a set-up man for closer Tom Gordon. Manager Charlie Manuel is one the record saying he would like to have a set-up man who worked as a closer in the past.

Despite appearing in 72 games in 2006 and saving 33 games for the Cubs in 2003, Borowski has struggled with shoulder trouble in 2004 and 2005 before rebounding with the Marlins.

Eaton returns as Wolf goes home

It’s hard to write about Randy Wolf and his move home to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers without doing some sad self-introspection. Baseball players, of course, come and go. There have been thousands of them to pass through Philadelphia and there will likely be thousands more. It’s the same everywhere.

A few leave a mark either on the field or off and Randy Wolf was one of those guys. Engaging, reasonably intelligent and always thoughtful are tough characteristics to find in most baseball clubhouses these days. To find a guy who encompasses all three is like finding a specific needle in a stack of needles.

Engaging, for a writer, is the important trait. It didn’t matter whether Wolf was pissed off after a poor outing or had somewhere to go after the game, he always treated a questioner with patience and respect.

Certainly it’s hard not to be excited for Wolf, who gets to pitch for his hometown team where his mom, family and friends can come see him pitch as often as possible. The fact that Wolf reportedly turned down better offers – including a multi-year deal from the Phillies – to go home speaks to how important it was to go home. Sure, he has made his money and will be paid a handsome salary with easy-to-reach incentives if he stays healthy, but another good person has taken less to go somewhere else.

“The Phillies were very competitive,” Wolf told reporters. “I felt that they were competitive with any offer out there. But it was just a matter of the Dodgers being the right opportunity. To me, it wasn't about trying to get the most money. It was important for me to have the opportunity that I didn't know would ever come up again.

“I could have gone to the highest bidder. But for me, going to the highest bidder wasn't as important as going to the place I was from. I grew up in the L.A. area and have many fond memories of going to Dodger Stadium with friends and family.”

Figuring out how to keep certain players in town is a headier project for another time.

Regardless, the part I’m struggling with is that Randy Wolf was the last player remaining on the Phillies from the first day I stepped into that damp and dark clubhouse in Veterans Stadium. I arrived on the scene about a week before Pat Burrell was finally called up from Scranton and months before Jimmy Rollins got his September call up and Terry Francona his September pink slip.

Scott Rolen, Robert Person, Bruce Chen, Brandon Duckworth, Brian Hunter, Nelson Figueroa, Omar Daal, Mike Lieberthal, Doug Glanville, Dave Coggin, Chris Brock, Eric Valent, Johnny Estrada, Todd Pratt, Amaury Telemaco, Wayne Gomes, Joe Roa, Jeremy Giambi, Eric Junge, Rheal Cormier, Bobby Abreu, Placido Polanco, Cory Lidle, Larry Bowa, Ricky Ledee, David Bell, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Houston, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Turk Wendell, Dan Plesac, Jason Michaels, Billy Wagner and Travis Lee…

All gone.

So Wolf heading for Los Angeles there are no more ballplayers who have been with the Phillies since the middle of the 2000 season.

If I didn’t know any better I’d say I’m getting old.

Eaton returns
I’m so old that I remember when Ed Wade traded away the team’s top pitching prospects, Adam Eaton and Carlton Loewer, for the surly and underachieving Andy Ashby. At the time Wade defended the deal by claiming the Phillies’ wild-card hopes for 2000 were directly pinned on Ashby coming through at the top of the rotation with Curt Schilling not due back to the rotation until May after undergoing off-season surgery. In theory Wade was correct. The Phillies needed a top-of-the-rotation starter to compliment Schilling, but that guy wasn’t Ashby.

That didn’t take long to figure out.

Ashby was traded to Atlanta by June for Bruce Chen, who lasted slightly longer than a season in Philadelphia before starting his collection of used uniforms.

Nevertheless, Eaton takes Wolf’s spot in the rotation even though the duo should have worked together for the past half decade.

Better late than never, right?

Though not officially official, Eaton is signed on for the next three seasons, which isn’t so bad. Just 29, Eaton will be heading into his prime years during his deal with the Phillies. Wolf should be coming into his prime, too, but Eaton should be slightly better… then again, pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery are typically better the second year.

We’ll definitely have the chance to see how it all unfolds.

No Lee, no way
It turns out that the Phillies only had a cursorily interest in slugger Carlos Lee before he signed a six-year deal worth $100 million with the Hoston Astros last week. According to what general manager Pat Gillick told wunderkind Phillies writer Todd Zolecki, the Phils never had a shot.

“We weren't in on him,” Gillick said in The Inquirer.

To that we say, “Why the hell not”?

Well…

“It's like musical chairs,” Gillick told Zolecki. “You don't want to be stuck without a chair... . I'm optimistic about the potential of some of the things we're talking about. I just think we've had some good dialogue back and forth, both in trades and in free agency. We've had some good talks.

“There wasn't a lot of depth in this market. You had Soriano and Carlos Lee. You have Zito and Schmidt. After you get by that group, there's not a lot there.”

On another note, the Phillies signed a third-base coach. If the newly-hired Steve Smith makes it through the first full week of December he’ll already be on the job longer than the last guy.

Et tu, Wolfie?

It wouldn’t be outlandish to believe that Randy Wolf’s future in Philadelphia disappeared as soon as the ink dried on soon-to-be 44-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer’s two-year, $10.5 million (plus incentives) contract signed on Monday afternoon. After all, with Moyer signed on until he’s Julio Franco’s age and 23-year old Cole Hamels a cog in the rotation for the next 15 years, why would the Phillies need another lefty like Wolf in the rotation?

Besides, the Phillies play their home games in a ballpark notorious for being especially friendly to right-handed hitters (lefties, too), so going after the NL East title with 60 percent of the rotation made up of southpaws might not be the best plan of attack.

Or would it?

Sometimes, though, things aren’t as easy as they appear. Even with lefties Moyer and Hamels set for a rotation with righties Brett Myers and Jon Lieber, it seems as if general manager Pat Gillick isn’t ready to let Wolf walk away just yet.

“We'd like to bring Wolfie back,” said Gillick, noting that the Phillies have been in contact with Wolf’s representatives. “We think his arm is fine and we think he's going to get better. Jamie and I had a conversation in Seattle about three left-handers in the rotation, and we liked the thought of that. We're hopeful that Randy will come back. We'd like to have the same five guys that we had last year. I look at it as a better rotation than we started '06 with. We think bringing Randy back will be a nice way to round out the rotation and start 2007. Hopefully, something will work out.”

Wolf, of course, is eligible to test free agency this winter after completing a four-year, $22 million deal. He also made a return from Tommy John surgery to reconstruct his left elbow in late July and made 12 starts in 2006. Though he was 4-0, Wolf, 30, tossed just 56 2/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA, while allowing hitters to hit .285 against him. Despite that, Gillick believes Wolf was making strides in his return from the injury and was beginning to re-establish his velocity as evidenced in his nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings.

Besides, pitchers returning from Wolf’s injury usually regain their pre-surgery form – and then some – in the second year following surgery. By that rationale, Wolf, and maybe even the Phillies, should expect big things in 2007.

Wolf has stated that he would like to return to Philadelphia for a bunch of reasons. One being that the Phillies drafted him, signed him and gave him the big contract before the 2003 season. More importantly, Wolf wants to be “playing baseball in October,” which might not be such a stretch after back-to-back near misses in 2005 and 2005.

Meanwhile, Moyer will solidify the back end of a rotation that was a problem for the Phillies in 2006. Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson, Eude Brito, Aaron Fultz and Adam Bernero were thrust into starting roles to varying degrees of mediocrity last season.

Needless to say, if the Phillies are able to add Wolf to the mix with the inning-eater Moyer, the team will have very few surprises in ’07.

What some find surprising is that Moyer, who will turn 44 on Nov. 18, drew a two-year deal from the Phillies. Yes, the Phillies held a $4.75 million option for Moyer the upcoming season, but the St. Joseph’s University alum and Sellersville, Pa. native now calls Seattle home. Gillick believed that Moyer would have been able to find a one-year deal closer to home and had to sweeten the pot a bit in order to keep the 20-year veteran in Philadelphia.

“I certainly felt that if Jamie got out on the marketplace, there was certainly a club out there that was going to give him one year, and there was a possibility that they would give him two years,” Gillick said. “He was important to us not only on the field, but the intangibles in the clubhouse. We wanted him back. I felt that we'd have to step up with more than one year. We think we worked out a situation that is a win-win for both sides. We're really elated that Jamie re-signed with the Phillies for two years.”

Moyer was something of a de facto pitching coach for the Phillies when he joined the club after the trade with the Mariners, tutoring Wolf and Hamels as well as other teammates on the finer points of the game he picked up over the past two decades.

But more than that, the Phillies prospects for getting to the playoffs for the first time since 1993 enticed Moyer. So did the Phillies’ special considerations to Moyer’s family situation where the pitcher can leave the team to go to Seattle to be with his wife and six children when the team’s schedule permitted.

But unlike the deal Roger Clemens had with the Astros in which he only really had to show up for games he was slated to pitch, Moyer won’t do it that way.

“The last six weeks of the season were tough on us as a family,” Moyer said. “I can't thank the Phillies enough for being understanding, and I'm sure my teammates will understand. I'm not here to take advantage of that situation. I won't be missing road trips. I won't be picking and choosing what trips I go on. Personally, I can't do that.”

Most importantly, Moyer believes he isn’t just durable, but he can still pitch, too. At least that’s the way it seemed when he joined the Phillies for the stretch run in August. In eight starts after the trade Moyer worked into the seventh inning in seven of his eight outings on his way to piling up his sixth straight 200-plus innings season and eighth in his last nine years. His 211 1/3 innings in 2006 were the fifth-most by a pitcher at least 43 years old in baseball history.

“I'm trying to be honest with myself,” Moyer said. “At some point in time, it's going to be the end, but right now I haven't seen any signs. I still enjoy playing, and I still have the passion to play. I still feel like I can contribute, and as long as I have opportunities to do that, why not? Playing allows me to feel like a kid.”

Why not, indeed.

All hands on deck

The easy part about baseball is second-guessing. Sometimes, second-guessing the moves made throughout a game is also the most fun part of watching a game.

But if there is one thing that’s evident is that managers and coaches HATE being second-guessed. I can’t say I blame them. Who wants some smart-alecky guy who can watch the game high in a perch above the field with TV monitors and a laptop at the ready to look up any information needed?

Back when he was managing the Yankees, Billy Martin always had a direct answer for any questioner challenging his moves. When asked why he made a certain move, Billy invariably said: “Because I’m the bleeping manager, that’s why.”

Billy Martin was Charlie Manuel’s first manager in the big leagues back when he came up for the Minnesota Twins in the late 1960s, and the Phillies’ skipper has – from time to time – recited Billy’s old line, though with less colorful language.

That said, since Manuel is the manager and his decisions are what they are, I’m curious about some of the choices the skipper made for his bullpen in last night’s game as it extended into extra innings. Knowing that the Dodgers had won in Colorado and a loss would send the Phillies to two games off the pace with just four games to go, I’m surprised Manuel remained so compartmentalized and rigid with his use of the bullpen.

How so? Didn’t he use the reliever he had? Well, yes and no. He used Clay Condrey, who pitched great, and Fabio Castro, who was shaky in notching his first big-league save, but what about Randy Wolf? Why couldn’t Wolf be used in the ‘pen?

Wolf pitched Monday night in Philadelphia and is slated to go on Saturday in Miami, but when the Dodgers won and the game went into extra innings, it was all hands on deck as far as I was concerned. Plus, since there is talk of Wolf being bumped from his next start so that the Phillies can move up Brett Myers and Cole Hamels to pitch on short rest, perhaps it would have been smart to get the starter ready.

Then again, the game only lasted 14 innings. Perhaps Wolf was going to pitch from the 15th inning on?

Observations with 10 games to go

Based on just looking around and listening, here are a few observations about the surging Phillies:

After injuries and other maladies curbed his first handful of pro seasons, it finally looks as if Cole Hamels is going to make to the end of one unscathed. Who would have guessed that Hamels first full season would come in the big leagues?

Be that as it may, Hamels is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts, so it seems as if he’s getting stronger. According to his teammates, he’s just the same old Cole.

"That’s his personality," catcher Chris Coste said. "He’s strong minded. He knows what he can do. Whether it’s the middle or July or the seventh game of the World Series, he’s the same guy. That’s just the way he is. Whether it’s a playoff game or a game like this one, he’s the guy you want on the mound."

Said fellow lefty Randy Wolf: "He has one of the three best changeups in baseball."

Johan Santana is at the top of that list, according to Wolf.

Trading for Jamie Moyer and Jeff Conine was a masterstroke by general manager Pat Gillick and his assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. Forget what those guys are doing on the field, it’s in the clubhouse where the influence is really important.

Moyer and Conine, both 40 and over, are two classic lead-by-example guys, who have shown the youngsters on the Phillies how to prepare and get into the right frame of mind to play. Both guys are intense, they do their homework, and they bring an organic intensity to every task. Moyer and Conine are not in Philadelphia to goof around – they’re here to win.

In 2003 the Marlins picked up Conine for the stretch run and he helped his team hammer the Phillies to win the wild-card and contributed to the World Series run. More important than his home runs to beat the Phillies was the attitude he brought to the Marlins. I remember Juan Pierre watching how the veteran prepared every day and said he was afraid to talk to Conine because, “He always looks like he’s mad.”

It turns out Conine wasn’t mad. He’s just hungry.

Yeah, there are nine games left and the Phillies are as close to a playoff berth as they have been since 1993. Every victory puts them just a tiny bit closer. However, I still don’t feel it yet. Maybe it’s from watching too many Phillies games over the years, but I’m going to wait until the very end and reserve judgment.

Be that as it may, I think the Padres will win the NL West. Call it a hunch.

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, here’s something interesting from Will Carroll’s injury column that could have some bearing on this weekend’s series:

Miguel Cabrera has missed a couple games with a strained shoulder, the result of an awkward lunge at an outside pitch. Cabrera’s injury isn’t considered serious, but could keep him out for the rest of the season. The team is focused on getting past the controversy surrounding their manager and one way to do that would be finishing at or above .500. Cabrera’s return might well be tied to the chances of hitting that magic number. The MVP candidate should have no long-term concerns from the injury.

Carroll’s column is stellar stuff, though Howie Bryant’s steroids-in-baseball book was far superior to Carroll’s.

I play hunches, but at BP they use science. Here are the latest postseason odds as generated by the folks at BP simulating the final 10 games of the season a million times:

Phillies are on pace to win 84.1 games, which gives them a 46.53874 percent chance to win the wild card. However, the Padres (85.4 victories) and the Dodgers (84.7), still rate above the Phillies.

Can you say playoff game in Philadelphia on Oct. 2?

Phils' Wolf Searching for the One That Got Away

NEW YORK — You know that commercial where two young, hip-looking 20-somethings angrily bump into each other on a subway platform and then realize, as they catch a glimpse of each other that true love may have just walked onto the No. 7 train? The ad ends with the sultry young woman writing her phone number on the fogged up window of the train... it's a gum commercial or something.

Anyway, something like that kind of happened to Randy Wolf at Grand Central Station before Thursday afternoon's game at Shea Stadium, but with one big catch — the lefty didn't get the number and now he needs some help.

Here's what happened:

On his way to Shea Stadium, Wolf met a woman he knows only as Liz at the Grand Central Station terminal as he was heading to the subway. It seems as if Liz was lost and confused about how to get to Times Square, so Wolf — despite being a Californian, but being a friendly guy — gave her a hand.

Along the way, Liz and Randy struck up a conversation before each hopped on trains heading in opposite directions.

If only he had acted sooner.

Ah, but there is still a chance for Cupid's arrow to deliver its intent. So smitten was Wolf that he could describe Liz's outfit from head to toe — brown suede bell bottoms and a black coat, with brown hair and brown eyes — and he wants to get the word out that he wants to meet her again. In fact, he was even considering taking out an ad in one of the New York papers.

So, if young Liz is out there and is interested in meeting up with that helpful 6-foot, 180-pound gentleman she met on the train on Thursday who enjoys movies, music, the beach and recently signed a four-year, $22 million contract, she should contact Randy through the Phillies public relations department at pubrel@phillies.com.

E-mail John R. Finger