MVP?

Around these parts, Ryan Howard has slugged his way into the debate for NL MVP. And why not? With a homer in four straight games, Howard leads the Majors with 48 home runs as well as with 125 RBIs.

But nationally Howard isn’t getting as much respect as in Philly and that’s especially the case with that stat folks and logical types at Baseball Prospectus. According to a story on the BP site by Joe Sheehan, Ryan Howard isn’t even the MVP on the Phillies.

Here’s an excerpt from the story:

Apparently, the NL MVP race isn’t as small as I would have it. Many, many readers--even more than the number who chimed in defending Jermaine Dye’s honor when I left him out of the AL MVP discussion--wrote in to question the absence of Ryan Howard from Monday’s article. Howard leads the NL in homers, RBI and slugging average. His hot August (.330/.431/.699), coupled with the Phillies’ "surge" to the vicinity of .500 and the wild-card slot, has made him a viable candidate in some quarters.

The problem isn’t just that Howard’s season is not on par with Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Beltran. The problem is that Howard isn’t the most valuable Phillies infielder on the right side of second base.

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
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Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Chase Utley .317 .385 .525 .300 53.5 15 6.4

Howard hits more home runs than Chase Utley. Utley and the three real MVP candidates do everything else better than Howard does. The big guy is seventh in the league in EqA, VORP and RARP, and off the charts in WARP. Once you account for position and the things baseball players do other than hit homers, he falls rapidly down the lists.

Can Howard be a serious MVP candidate when he’s three wins worse than the other first baseman in the discussion?

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Albert Pujols .323 .424 .665 .345 65.4 19 8.8

From here to the end of the season it will be a wide-open race. If Howard gets to 60 homers, give him the trophy… and all of the bonus clauses.

Joe Sheehan: Howard the Phillie