The clown show is on hiatus

Note: Beginning now this site is going on a two-week hiatus. As most regular readers know, my wife and I are expecting our second child (a boy) any day. But now that we are more than a week past the due date and since her cervix is like one of those old-fashioned steel bear traps, the natural process needs some prodding. Therefore, we go to the hospital on Thursday night with the hope of delivering the big boy on Friday.

It should be noted that Friday is also the birth day for Yasser Arafat, Vince McMahon, Cal Ripken Jr., Reggie Miller and Dave Chappelle.

Anyway, I will be checking in from time to time, but I will not return with regular posts until September 7. When we return expect something of a new look, structure and organization… maybe even a redesign, too.

Like anyone who has devoted time to baseball, I know that statistics are not worth the paper they are printed on. They lie and can be manipulated to prove bogus points. Statistics also cannot quantify health, heart, ability and whether or not someone has put hard workouts to be prepared for a long season. Plus, stats don’t go into the clubhouse and get a feel of the mood of the room or have to go face-to-face with a player it may have lied about.

Statistics are cowards. Sports are for playing, not watching – we hold these truths to be self evident.

But sometimes it is difficult to debate the statistics. For instance, in pushing the streak of not winning a series in Pittsburgh since June of 2001, the Phillies were outscored by the Pirates 15-2 from the seventh inning on last weekend at PNC Park or whatever the hell corporation owns the naming rights now.

Yeah, that’s right, 15-2… against the Pirates… the worst team in the National League.

So I’m going to cherry pick that one specific statistic to show that the Phillies might not have the pitching needed to get to the playoffs. Then again, it wasn’t like anyone needed a stat for that.

Pitching aside, the Phillies should have a really good idea of how the last month of the season will play out at the end of the next 10 days. With three games against the Dodgers and three more against both the Padres and the Mets – the two teams the Phillies are chasing in different playoff races – the playoff race is right in front of the team.

For the Phillies, 5-5 is treading water, 6-4 is reasonable; and 7-3 and better is ideal. But anything worse than .a 500 homestand could be the beginning of the beginning of the end.

According to Ryan Howard the Phillies control their own destiny... they also take them one game at a time and give 110 percent.

“This is a big series for us and the good thing is that we control our own destiny,” Howard said before Tuesday’s game against the Dodgers. “There will be a little bit of scoreboard watching going on, but most of it will be us trying to handle our own business.”

Scoreboard watching, huh?

“The scoreboard sits right there in front of us so we can’t help but not look at it,” manager Charlie Manuel said on Tuesday. “It’s about that time of the year and that can be good.”

***
Meanwhile, Chase Utley could return in a week after being cleared to take some swings with a bat for the first time after breaking his wrist at the end of July.

“(I) took some swings off the tee – started with the fungo and moved to my regular bat. I didn’t swing 100 percent but it felt pretty good,” Utley offered.

Based on his recovery from day to day, Utley hopes to add a little more volume to his workouts as he looks to his return.

***
But the injury bug has reared its head again… Cole Hamels has been scratched from tomorrow’s start with some left elbow tenderness. From the initial, knee-jerk reaction it doesn’t seem to be anything other than late-season tiredness, but pitchers’ arms are quite mysterious.

Regardless, Hamels is being diagnosed with a mild elbow strain and will have a precautionary MRI tomorrow.

“He was up front with us so I hope we got it early,” pitching coach Rich Dubee said.

***
Though one current Dodger pitcher once told me that “sometimes injuries just happen,” I respectfully disagreed. Injuries always happen for a reason – sometimes we can’t figure out what the reason is, but as our boy Floyd said, all it takes is the proper training:

“There's only one rule: The guy who trains the hardest, the most, wins. Period. Because you won't die. Even though you feel like you'll die, you don't actually die. Like when you're training, you can always do one more. Always. As tired as you might think you are, you can always, always do one more.

“If you overtrained, it means that you didn't train hard enough to handle that level of training. So you weren't overtrained; you were actually undertrained to begin with. So there's the rule again: The guy who trains the hardest, the most, wins."”

Learn it. Live it. Love it.

Not to beat a dead horse but someone get my whip…

Salon.com’s King Kaufman wrote in today’s column that he talked to a stathead friend following the Eagles’ loss to the Saints on Saturday night and his knee-jerk reaction that punting on 4th-and-15 with 1:56 to go was the wrong move was, well, statistically correct.

Kaufman writes: The bottom line: “We estimate that Philadelphia's win probability is about 0.11 if they go for the first down, compared to about 0.05 if they punt. By choosing to punt with 1:56 left against New Orleans, Andy Reid halved his team's likelihood of winning.”

Crunch time

Third quarter vitals:
Saints ran 16 plays for 147 yards and 14 points.
Eagles ran 11 plays for 124 yards and 7 points.

This is a really good game.

On another note, it’s good to see the Punt, Pass & Kick kids out on the field at the end of the third quarter. Better yet, get a good look at those kids now because they’re going places – after all, you’re reading the words of the 1979 trophy winner from the Washington, D.C. area.

Damn right.

Howard is the MVP

Forget the numbers for a second. Often in baseball people get too hung up on the numbers and lose sight of the people and the game. After all, that's what draws us to the game, right?

How can anyone quantify that running catch Michael Bourn had in right field the other night in his big league debut? Well, yeah, I'm sure some egghead can whip up some type of formula to show that Bourn's catch was the 463rd best by a right fielder in his Major League debut. But that's not the point -- the point is that Bourn ran like a freakin' gazelle, extended his arm as high as it could go and softly cradled the ball into his black glove just before he nearly flattened himself into the outfield fence.

That, folks, is baseball. Leave the numbers to the stat geeks -- we'll take the game.

Digressing a bit, I'm reminded of a conversation I had with Scott Rolen a few years ago. When presented with the notion that he could very well be the best fielding third baseman ever to play the game, Rolen shifted his feet uncomfortably for a few seconds before answering, "You know, that's nice, but I really don't think there is any way you can determine that. Every game and every player is different and a lot of people being compared never played during the same time."

He was using an old but popular argument about how it was difficult to compare players from different eras, etc. It's a valid argument, of course, and it wasn't just a matter of Rolen trying to be diplomatic, either. He just didn't want to think about being better than anyone else. Something tells me he's like that in a lot of facets of his life.

Nevertheless, I told him that, yes, indeed, there are ways to determine who the best is. Smart people with real jobs and the ability to make numbers sing have come up with formulas and hyperbola showing who could do what and all that jazz.

Basically, living, breathing people had been reduced to cold, hard numbers in order to prove something that most baseball people think is silly. The numbers may show something, but they don't tell the story.

Numbers don't show how hard Randy Wolf and Rolen worked during the off season in order to play this year. Numbers don't show how Curt Schilling was able to get all of those strikeouts by studying all of the hitters with John Vukovich. Numbers don't show the size of Charlie Manuel's spirit after he battled a heart attack and cancer to return to a Major League bench.

You can have the numbers. Give me something I can touch.

You want to know what else the numbers don't show? How about how important Ryan Howard has been to the Phillies during their chase for the wild card. Oh sure, there are the home runs and the RBIs with the slugging, OBP, OPS and batting average that will put him in the horserace with Albert Pujols for the NL MVP Award. In that regard, yes, the numbers do tell a big portion of the story.

But they can't quantify the veteran things Howard has been doing since he has come to the big leagues to stay last summer.

Veteran things?

By that I mean making himself available to the media before and after every game no matter what happened previously. Win, lose, embarrassment, controversy, celebration or whatever the occasion, Howard has been dependable. In fact, last season there were times when Howard was the only player to speak for the team during a difficult period for the team. Now how is a rookie, who had not even played a complete Major League season, going to be the spokesman for the team? I guess that's just who Ryan Howard is.

Accountability is a lost art that transcends sports. When a "stand up" guy is identified, people have a way of gravitating toward that person. That's kind of the way it has been for the Phillies this year.

Certainly this group of Phillies has a lot of stand up guys. Howard, Wolf, Rowand, Conine, Gordon, Coste, Moyer, Madson, Victorino, Dellucci, Hamels... the list continues. But when one of the big stars is doing the dirty work -- like handling the media and all of the other extenuating non-baseball things – it doesn’t go unnoticed. It may not seem like a big deal to the casual fan or the number crunchers, but if Ryan Howard is standing up in front of the media, it means other players don’t have to. Instead, those guys can get the treatment they need, or they can go home and rest so they can be fresh for the game the next day.

In baseball, the little things matter just as much as the 56 homers, 138 RBIs and .311 batting average.

The numbers add up
Last season there was some debate whether Howard was going to win the rookie of the year award over Jeff Francoeur of Atlanta and Willy Taveras of Houston. Actually, let me rephrase that -- there was some debate amongst people who didn't know any better. For those of us who spoke with rookie of the year voters, we knew Howard was going to win the award easily and thought the idea of the debate was silly.

But sometimes sports media is very silly.

Nevertheless, it seems as if some of the MVP voters are giving Howard a really long look. And based on what's happening in the final month of the season, Howard just might be sprinting for the finish.

Whether or not he passes Pujols remains to be seen.