Not to beat a dead horse but someone get my whip…
Salon.com’s King Kaufman wrote in today’s column that he talked to a stathead friend following the Eagles’ loss to the Saints on Saturday night and his knee-jerk reaction that punting on 4th-and-15 with 1:56 to go was the wrong move was, well, statistically correct.
Kaufman writes: The bottom line: “We estimate that Philadelphia's win probability is about 0.11 if they go for the first down, compared to about 0.05 if they punt. By choosing to punt with 1:56 left against New Orleans, Andy Reid halved his team's likelihood of winning.”
Kaufman writes: The bottom line: “We estimate that Philadelphia's win probability is about 0.11 if they go for the first down, compared to about 0.05 if they punt. By choosing to punt with 1:56 left against New Orleans, Andy Reid halved his team's likelihood of winning.”
Labels: stats
posted by Motorboat Jones at 12:13 PM
2 Comments:
The guy's numbers are way off. Nobody believes there is a 22 percent chance of completing the pass on fourth-and-15.
Forget stats, this is a team that once converted on 4th and 26 in the playoffs... How quickly we forget... I guess Reid felt that his chances weren't as good without McNabb or First Down Freddy
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