Monday, April 02, 2007

Fearless forecast

Let’s preface this by noting that I am not a pessimist. I tend to look at the bright side of things and like to believe that everything will work out just the way it’s supposed to. The result of things might not be the most desirable turn of events, but oh well. Deal with it, live your life and keep moving forward.

Yet at the same time I’ve learned that if you play with fire you just might get burned. Or, if something seems to occur over and over again despite the best intentions to stop it, well, that’s just the way it’s going to be.

So that’s why I’m picking a team other than the Phillies to win the NL East this year. In fact, my crystal ball says the playoff drought will continue, too. And no, my reason has nothing to do with how good the Mets are or that the Phillies need some help in the bullpen. It all has to do with 2003 and 2004.

In 2003 as most fans remember, the Phillies brought in Jim Thome and Kevin Millwood. They also signed Pat Burrell to a $50 million extension where he told some writers that the Phillies were the team to end the Braves’ streak of division titles. But by August the team was ready to beat up the manager and the pitching coach before finally falling apart in Florida during the last week of the season.

Then there was 2004 when the Phillies brought in Billy Wagner, Roberto Hernandez, Tim Worrell and had Rheal Cormier coming off one the best set-up seasons ever to join Millwood, Eric Milton, Brett Myers on a solid rotation with Thome and Burrell. That team had 95-wins written all over it with a bullpen that owned a thousand career saves.

By June, though, one of those relievers punched out the pitching coach and the manager was fired by the end of the season.

So in essence, the reason why the Phillies won’t win the NL east this year is because the 2003 and 2004 teams were better than this one.

Not exactly scientific logic, but until it’s proven they actually can do it I’m not going to stick my hand in the fire.

I could get burned.

Anyway, here it is:

NL East
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

NL West
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres
Giants
Rockies

Playoffs: Mets vs. D’backs; Cardinals vs. Dodgers

Labels:

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home



© 2006 - John R. Finger - all rights reserved