Wet and wild

Ask any well-trained athlete what the biggest concern is on the day of competition and the answer will be the same every time.

The weather.

Baseball, of course, cannot be played in even the slightest of poor conditions, while football is stripped down to its bare essence when the weather turns sloppy. On days like we had today – where a nasty Nor’easter barreled through and dropped about four inches of rain on us, the Phillies, Mets and Red Sox decided to stay indoors.

Smart thinking.

Knowing how athletes fret about the weather it’s safe to say that there are a lot of people struggling to get to sleep tonight in Boston. Tomorrow, of course, is Patriot’s Day in New England which means it is Boston Marathon Day. And judging from the forecast for Monday it seems like the reward for those weekly 20-milers and months of training will be the sloppiest day in the 111 years of the race.

Maybe the anticipated wet and windy weather is a bit of poetic justice of sorts. After all, after 110 years of holding the race at 12 noon on the dot on Patriot’s Day Monday, the Boston Marathon will start at 10 a.m. Logistically, it makes sense to get everyone from Hopkinton, Mass. To Boston’s Back Bay sooner, but maybe it was a tradition that should be messed with. Perhaps that’s the case?

Actually, there are bigger forces are at play than silly superstition. However, having run a marathon in windy and wet conditions just a few months ago, I don’t envy the folks preparing to take the trip from Hopkinton to Boston. Unless the wind (predicted to gust up to 50 m.p.h.) is at the runner’s backs, then they can forget about any time goals. So that means a lot of hard work and training is lost like spores of a dandelion lost in a Nor’easter.

It’s not fair.

That’s the way it goes sometimes. As a runner, you can complain and feel bad about your fortune it or you can take off when the gun sounds and try to kick ass. There will be approximately 23,000 athletes ready to do just that tomorrow at 10 a.m.

What to look for
After a few days of feeling pretty pleased about skipping Boston this year, I have to admit that I wish I were there. How could anyone not want to run in the craziest and most extreme Boston Marathon ever? Nevertheless, I’ll be there in 2008.

As far as the fast elite runners go, don’t expect any Americans to sprinkle in to the top 10 like last year. That’s when Meb Keflezighi, Brian Sell, Alan Culpepper, Pete Gilmore and Clint Verran made the ’06 Boston Marathon the best showing by American runners in two decades. Don’t count on that tomorrow. For one thing Gilmore is the only runner of that group returning this year, since most of the elite Americans are focusing on the Olympic Trials to be run in New York City in early November, while Keflezighi, Khalid Khannouchi and Ryan Hall are slated to run the London Marathon (with another ridiculously deep field) next week.

On the men’s side, defending champ and course-record holder Robert Cheruiyot is back after his infamous spill at the finish line at last October’s Chicago Marathon. Cheruiyot is tough as nails which will come in handy in Monday’s conditions, but he should expect a challenge from countryman Benjamin Maiyo (second last year) and Robert Cheboror, who ran a 2:06 in Amsterdam in 2004.

The women’s race is doubling as the American national championship, which adds to the depth of the field. Defending champ Rita Jeptoo is back, along with defending New York City Marathon champion Jelena Prokopcuka, and Mexican stalwart Madai Perez.

But Monday is Deena’s day.

Readers of these pages know that Deena Kastor is No. 1a amongst the greatest American women runners in history (Joan Samuelson, of course, is No. 1, too). A victory in Boston would be the perfect complement to a great resume. And based on Kastor's showing in the USATF Cross Country Championships, she very well could be the best runner in the world right now.

One last bit of advice
Typically, my advice to anyone running Boston is to resist the urge to go too fast on all of the downhills through the first half of the race because, inevitably, you’ll pay for it later. That happened to me in ’97. But as soon as you get to the top of a small hill around the 14-mile mark, run like hell. Better yet, from 14 miles on surge on every downhill and maintain your pace on the inclines – including Heartbreak Hill.

Boston, like a few other marathons, is like a tricky golf course. Every mile has its idiosyncrasies and nuances that make the race unlike any other in the world just the way Augusta and Pine Valley offer challenges.

Late Sunday night, however, I came across this on the Boston Athletic Association web site:

The Boston Athletic Association's medical team recommends the following precautions and advice for participants in Monday's Boston Marathon:

FORECAST: The most up-to-date weather forecast calls for a predicted Spring storm on Monday, including heavy rains (potentially 3 to 5 inches), with the start temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. Wind will likely be East (in the face of the participants for most of the race) in the 20 to 25 mile per hour range, with gusts to as much as 50 miles per hour. This will produce a wind chill index of 25 to 30-degrees Fahrenheit.

RISKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN COLD AND WET CONDITIONS: Combined with the rain, we are concerned that predicted weather conditions will increase the runners' risks for a condition called hypothermia. As with any athletic competition, as a runner you are assuming the risks inherent with participation. It is your responsibility to be informed about the risks associated with running in the aforementioned conditions, and the risks of injury or illness will increase with these predicted conditions.

While exercising in cold weather, our bodies attempt to maintain core temperature by shunting blood away from the periphery, thus minimizing heat loss. Hypothermia sets in when the body's temperature drops below normal, starting when the body loses heat faster than heat can be generated. Heat is produced by muscle action and shivering. Very low body temperatures can be life threatening.

In other words, all bets are off.